NHL betting guide: Daily picks, odds, win probabilities and advice

Follow our live NHL Playoffs updates of Bruins vs Hurricanes, Lightning vs Maple Leafs and Kings vs Oilers.

Welcome to our daily game probabilities page where you will find the win probability for each of the night’s games, as well as betting advice based on how those probabilities compare to marketplace odds. The game probabilities take into account each team’s strength (based on projected rosters), home ice and rest. Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster based on Game Score Valued Added (GSVA). You can read more about GSVA and the model here.

This page will be updated each morning between 10:00 am and 12:00 pm

For those unfamiliar with betting, I wrote a guide a few years ago that still holds up. It sums up the basic tricks of the trade and I urge you to read. While the model’s picks have been profitable in the past, there is no guarantee it will always be profitable – please don’t bet any money you’re uncomfortable losing.

For optimal betting strategy, I would recommend plugging each probability into a Kelly Criterion calculator with a Kelly multiplier of 0.35 (full Kelly is a bit too aggressive for a sport as variant as hockey). Recommended stake sizes will be included to make life easier for some of you, but those will be based on Bet MGM lines at time of posting. If you see a different line The Kelly Criterion calculator linked above is still the go-to.

Last updated: June 20, 2022, 12:45 am EST

Betting Advice

Apologies for missing Game 2, but it would’ve been a similar line to Game 1 and thus no bet. We do have something for tonight, but proceed with caution given all the injury statuses up in the air.

  • Tampa Bay (-110, 1.91) – 2.6 percent: The first two games have been extremely discouraging for the Lightning who look exceptionally overmatched against Colorado. It hasn’t been at all close. But this is Tampa Bay after-all and the Lightning won’t go down without a fight. I think the line has swung too much in the other direction here – especially if Andrei Burakovsky is unlikely to play (he’s flying in today). He’s a big part of their depth and his presence (worth 1.7 percent) would bring me down to -118. There’s also the possibility that Nazem Kadri But that also seems unlikely to play he was seen with a cast on still this morning. He’s worth 3.1 percent. Brayden Point is a game-time decision, but it feels likely that he will play. If Riley Nash suits up in his place, Tampa Bay’s odds go down 3.3 percentage points. A lot of things can go wrong here to make Colorado the right side, but based on availabilities it feels like Point will be in, Burakovsky and Kadri will be out and we have a bet. Considering the series is 2-0 and we all expected a long one, I’ll take the risk of things going wrong because The Vibes seem to be on Tampa Bay’s side.

Last Game

NHL betting guide: Daily picks, odds, win probabilities and advice

Betting Advice

It’s been a while since we had a bet on hockey and that does not change tonight. That’s a good thing for the model’s sake, but a bad thing if you want action. It’s unlikely we’ll have anything during the finals, so might be best to just ride the Avalanche futures and maybe sprinkle something on Cale Makar to win the Conn Smythe.

There is a chance Pavel Francouz plays tonight which pushes me to -105 Colorado, but I doubt it. My line includes Brayden Point playing and if he’s out I’m at -150 Colorado.

First Round

An absolutely massive night to close out the season puts us at +20 units on the year. It was an absolute roller coaster getting there, but we’ll take it. Maybe next year we’ll turn towards recency a little sooner.

There’s no edge on today’s lone game, but it is a good time to talk about the playoffs which start tomorrow. Futures and series prices are the name of the game here and here’s what I would recommend based on the model.

Future Pets

To win Stanley Cup

I divided the usual Kelly stake by three here.

  • Colorado +325 – 1 percent: I’m very high on Colorado and have the team’s odds at +233. There’s value on the favourite, but we’ll see if playoff hockey makes that difficult.
  • Florida +550 – 1 percent:
  • Toronto +1000 – 0.3 percent:
  • Minnesota +1800 – 0.3 percent:

To win Conference

I divided the usual Kelly stake by three here. Unsurprisingly it’s the same teams. You can double dip here, or go with one or the other (especially for teams like the Wild or Leafs who would be underdogs in the final against Florida and Colorado respectively, those teams should make it).

  • Colorado +130 – 1.3 percent:
  • Florida +275 – 1.5 percent:
  • Toronto +450 – 0.5 percent:
  • Minnesota +750 – 0.8 percent:

First Round

Again, reducing risk here to one-third as there will be daily game bets. But still some decent edges to be had. These are all series prices.

  • Minnesota (-165, 1.61) – 3.5 percent:
  • Florida 4-0 (+550, 6.50) – 0.8 percent:
  • Florida -2.5 (+140, 2.40) – 1.5 percent:
  • Toronto (-120, 1.83) – 1.9 percent:
  • Colorado 4-0 (+400, 5.00) – 1.3 percent:
  • Colorado -2.5 (+105, 2.05) – 5.0 percent:

Second Round

At one-third risk here.

  • Colorado -1.5 (-175, 1.57) – 2.0 percent:
  • Florida (-155, 1.65) – 1.5 percent:

Third Round

Going full risk here since our bet quantity is dwindling down.

  • Colorado -1.5 (-110, 1.91) – 3.4 percent: ✅

Record Keeping

2021-22 Record

Regular Season: 201-182, 20.1 units, 5.3 percent ROI

Playoffs: 14-17, -4.0 units, -9.1 percent ROI

Futures: 5-11, 1.3 units

betstamp profile (2020-21 record does not reflect stake size which is why there’s a discrepancy between what was posted in last year’s betting guide)

2020-21 Betting Guide with record

The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.